Make the most of your Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2015
Check here for all EBASG sponsored symposia, posters, meetings and mixers!
All EBASG members are welcome to join the business meeting and mixer.
- Business Meeting: Monday, December 7, 12:05 - 1:00 PM, Room: Salon 1
- Mixer: Tuesday, December 8, 6:00 - 7:30 PM, Room: Jefferson
Poster Reception: Monday, December 7, 2015, 6:00-8:00 PM, Salon III-VI
This year’s meeting will feature a Poster Reception on Monday evening from 6:00 to 8:00 PM, with food and cash bar. During this time, attendees will have the opportunity to vote for the 5 Best Posters. Posters will be on display starting at 5:00 pm and poster presenters will be at their posters for questions and discussion during the Reception. Consider voting for an EBASG poster! Don't miss it!
P.53 Risk and insurance demand, Seog SH, Seoul National University
P.54 What drives economic contagion? Findings from a borrower lender game, Welburn J, University of Wisconsin - Madison
P.55 Efficient food standards for radioceasium based on cost-benefit analysis of the regulation, Oka T, Fukui Prefectural University
P.56 Modeling the economic cost of non-fatal injuries from terrorist attacks, Heatwole NT, University of Southern California
P.57 Achievement of a good balance between the enhancement of risk reduction and production: An economic experiment approach, Makino R, Akai K, Takeshita J, AIST
P.58 Advancing Methods for Benefits Analysis, Bateson TF, Blessinger T, Subramaniam R, Axelrad DA, Dockins C, US Environmental Protection Agency
P.59 Benefit analysis of vehicle crash imminent braking systems for bicyclist fatality reduction, Good DH, Chien S, Li L, Christopher L, Zheng J, Krutilla K, Tian R, Chen Y, Indiana University, Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis
P.61 The social and economic effects of wage violations: estimates for California and New York, Forsell T, Haverstick K, Nadeau L, Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG)
Symposia and Roundtables: EBASG sponsored symposia will be held in Room B.
Monday, December 7
M3-B: 1:30 PM - 3:00 PM, Joint Society for Risk Analysis & Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis (SBCA) Roundtable: Improving the Link Between Risk Assessment and Economic Analysis; http://birenheide.com/sra/2015AM/program/singlesession.php3?sessid=M3-B
M4-B: 3:30 - 5:00 PM, Symposium: Quantifying Armed Conflict and Social Unrest; http://birenheide.com/sra/2015AM/program/singlesession.php3?sessid=M4-B
Tuesday, December 8
T3-B: 1:30 - 3:00 PM, Symposium: Retrospective Analysis and the Characterizations ofUncertainty in Risk Management Policies: Part I, Co-sponsored by the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis; http://birenheide.com/sra/2015AM/program/singlesession.php3?sessid=T3-B
T4-B: 3:30 - 5:00 PM, Symposium: Retrospective Analysis and the Characterizations of Uncertainty in Risk Management Policies: Part 2, Co-sponsored by the Society for Benefit Cost Analysis; http://birenheide.com/sra/2015AM/program/singlesession.php3?sessid=T4-B
Wednesday, December 9
W1-B: 8:00 - 9:30 AM, Symposium: Frontiers in Benefit-Cost and Risk Analysis, Co-sponsored by the Society for Benefit Cost Analysis; http://birenheide.com/sra/2015AM/program/singlesession.php3?sessid=W1-B
W2-B: 9:45 AM - 11:15 AM, Roundtable: Decision Analysis for Uncertain Futures, Co-sponsored by the Society for Benefit Cost Analysis; http://birenheide.com/sra/2015AM/program/singlesession.php3?sessid=W2-B
W3-B: 1:15 - 2:45 PM, Presidential Session: Weight of Evidence and Standard of Proof: A Nexus; http://birenheide.com/sra/2015AM/program/singlesession.php3?sessid=W4-B
Sunday, December 6: 8:00 am-Noon
WK8S: Eliciting Judgments from Experts and Non-experts to Inform Decision-Making
Instructors: Aylin Sertkaya, Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG); Cristina McLaughlin, FDA; Frank Hearl, NIOSH; Christy Parson, US EPA; Elizabeth L. Durmowicz, US FDA
Onsite Cost: $300
Decision makers must frequently rely on data or information that is incomplete or inadequate in one way or another. Judgment, often from experts and occasionally from non-experts, then plays a critical role in the interpretation and characterization of those data as well as in the completion of information gaps. But how experts or non-experts are selected and their judgments elicited matters – they can also strongly influence the opinions obtained and the analysis on which they rely. Several approaches to eliciting judgments have evolved. The workshop will cover topics ranging from recruitment, elicitation protocol design, and different elicitation techniques (e.g., individual elicitations, Delphi method, nominal group technique, etc.) to aggregation methods for combining opinions of multiple individuals. The role of judgment elicitation and its limitations, problems, and risks in policy analysis will also be addressed. The workshop will include presentation of two case studies that will include a discussion of the selection process; elicitation protocol development, elicitation technique utilized, and the various issues that arose before, during, and after the elicitation process and the manner in which they were resolved. The class will also include two hands-on exercises where participants will 1) learn about calibration of experts using a mobile application and 2) apply the Delphi and nominal group techniques to examine risk management issues associated with electronic cigarettes.
Sunday, December 6: 1:00 - 5:00 PM
WK12S: Methods for Quantifying and Valuing Population Health Impacts
Instructors: Kevin Brand, University of Ottawa; Sandra Hoffman, USDA
Onsite Cost: $325
The workshop reviews standard practices and emerging issues related to the quantification of a population’s health state. Particular attention is paid to the array of metrics available for this purpose, their use in quantifying population health impacts, and how these impact projections can be integrated into economic valuations. Risk assessment typically couples exposure information with an exposure-response relationship to estimate changes in incidence rates (e.g., a mortality rate). Expressed in this fashion (along an incident rate scale) these impact measures fall short. They do not capture the burden of disease, are not readily interpretable, complicate the comparison of disease outcomes, and are not suited to a single number summary. This workshop focuses on the methods required to get readily interpretable, comparable, bottom-line, summaries of health impact. A dizzying array of metrics can be used to quantify health impacts. Consider for example “avoidable deaths,’’ PEYLLs, life-expectancy, lifetime risk, HALEs, QALYs, DALEs, DALYs and `attributable-fractions’ to name just a few. In this workshop we survey and bring order to these variants, classifying the metrics into a couple of categories. A finer grained classification is provided based on how the metric is calculated; for example does it adjust for the size and age structure of the population under study. The key choices and their influence upon projected outcomes will be outlined. Finally, a survey of the key steps and considerations that are required to map the health impacts, expressed in units such as change in life-expectancy, into health-economic evaluations will be offered.