Tim Bedford won in the “geopolitical and societal risk” category for a paper proposing a new statistical modeling approach for group risks.
Bedford’s winning paper was entitled “Decision Making for Group Risk Reduction: Dealing with Epistemic Uncertainty.” The article addresses issues associated with “FN” curves that plot accident frequencies against numbers of fatalities. These curves are used by some governments – sometimes in conjunction with separate data on risk to individuals – in risk regulation.
The Lloyd’s judges commented that the paper would be “highly useful” for insurance industry modeling of risks. This paper was published in SRA’s journal Risk Analysis in Volume 33, Issue 10 (October 2013), pp. 1884-1898.
The company confirms that the competition is global, although publicized largely in the UK. For more details of the competition generally, which offers cash prizes, see http://www.lloyds.com/the-market/tools-and-resources/research/exposure-m.... For 2013, the competition categories were behavioral risk, biological and technological risks, and geopolitical and societal risks. The award categories for 2014 have not yet been announced.