New Research Finds Connection to Place Predicts Hurricane

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Herndon, VA, (July 7, 2026) — For U.S. coastal residents, storm surge is among the deadliest hurricane hazards, causing catastrophic property damage and loss of life; and scientists expect tropical storms to grow more intense. During Hurricane Ian in 2022, storm surge accounted for 41 of the 66 direct deaths. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is now underway, and while NOAA expects below-normal activity, emergency managers caution that it only takes one storm to devastate a community. A recent study published in Risk Analysis, finds that among residents living in flood-prone areas, place attachment is strongly related to protective action.

A research team from the National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) surveyed 1,442 residents in Georgia and South Carolina in areas at risk of storm surge. Respondents were asked about two main factors—their connection to place and different map depictions of hurricane storm surge—to learn how these factors related to their hurricane risk perceptions and intended behavioral responses. Researchers measured six dimensions of risk perception and four types of behavioral intentions, including evacuation, taking protective actions, listening to weather forecasts, and abiding by local officials’ recommendations before a storm hits.

KEY FINDINGS

• People who are more place-attached reported heightened risk perception across five of the six dimensions measured, including how likely they are tobe affected by storm surge and rainfall flooding and how severe the harm could be. This positive association was strongest for perceived severity, indicating that emotional and functional ties to a location are particularly linked to how people think they could be harmed in hurricane scenarios.
• Individuals with a strong connection to place are more likely to take protective actions other than evacuating, such as gathering emergency supplies, boarding up windows, or moving belongings to safety — and to heed local officials’ recommendations.
• Maps do not always steer people the way scientists expect. For some map visualizations that varied in scale and dimensionality, participants whose home was marked just outside the forecasted storm surge flooding area unexpectedly showed greater intent to act than those marked inside it.
• Even though the home marked “outside” the forecast area sat less than a quarter mile (0.23 miles) from the flooding, those residents consistently judged their own risk to be lower, suggesting that people may read more precision into a storm surge forecast than it can deliver.
• Demographic patterns were consistent with prior research. Women were more inclined than men to take protective action and heed local warnings, as were older respondents. And low-income respondents were less likely to heed local safety recommendations— an important equity finding for the people that communicate risks to their community.

“Geophysical hazards, like hurricanes, threaten people in the place they call home,” said Julie Demuth, senior scientist in the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research and lead author of the study. “That emotional and cognitive connection provides us insight into decision-making processes and can help officials to better keep their communities safe in high-risk coastal areas.”

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About Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis is a peer-reviewed journal, publishing original research on the assessment and management of risks across disciplines including public health, engineering, environmental science, social science and policy. Risk Analysis, founded in 1980, is published by Wiley on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis.

For more information, visit https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15396924.

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